Start at the Prologue and First Chapter here

By the end of a long day of analyzing code commits at GitHub Frank had learned a lot about who was doing what in the GFBS code base, who carried weight among the developers, and who did not. But he hadn’t found anything that aroused his suspicions. As he logged off his computer for the day, his phone rang.

“Hello, Marla,” he answered. “Good to hear from you.”

“Of course, And anyway, I wanted to find out how the bird feeder’s working out? What kind of birds have you seen so far?”

“None. Just Fang.”

“Fang?”

“That’s right. Fang. The squirrel that’s eating me out of house and home.”

Marla giggled, appreciating the situation immediately – her father outsmarted by a five-ounce ball of fur. She couldn’t resist the urge to tweak him.

“Well, I’m sure you can figure out a way to stop him. What have you tried so far?”

“Well, I bought a baffle online to stop him from climbing down the wire.”

“And?”

“He switched back to jumping to the feeder from the vine he uses to climb up the wall.”

“So? Did you try moving the feeder?”

“Of course I did.”

“And?”

“He just finds a new launch pad. My porch isn’t all that big, you know.”

She did. “Yeah, I can see how that would be a problem. Anyway, why ‘Fang?’”

“Because the little devil slashed me.”

“Slashed you? How in the world did he do that?”

“I was trying to feed him by hand,” her father admitted.

“Well, don’t do that!”

“You can bet I won’t. Anyway, I’ll figure out a way to beat him.”

Marla smiled. This should be fun. Squirrels were notorious for defeating every defense ever devised to protect a bird feeder. She was putting her money on Fang.

*  *  *

A news update popped open on Frank’s phone as he sat in the silent comfort of the back seat of one of the bank’s town cars. Hmm. He poked the link and saw an empty podium on a stage. Behind it was draped a blue flag with a four-pointed star. He turned up the sound to hear the voice-over.

In just a minute we expect Colonel Amos Bradley to provide an update regarding Russia’s latest ZAPAD military exercise – and it looks like that’s him now.

A uniformed man with a stern face and a short military haircut stepped up to the podium and adjusted the microphone. Looking out at an invisible audience, he began to speak.

Good afternoon. I’ll begin by reading a statement.

Earlier today, the Supreme Allied Commander of NATO issued a warning to Russia to discontinue its build-up of military forces in Belarus. The Kremlin has responded that its actions are simply part of long-scheduled joint military exercises involving Belarus and Russian land and air forces. The Kremlin maintains that these exercises comply with protocols agreed upon by NATO and Russia under the Vienna Document, which since 1990 has required the exchange of certain military information between Russia and most European nations.

However, under those protocols, each side has the right to place on-site observers to monitor a military exercise if troop numbers exceed thirteen thousand. The purpose of these protocols is to lessen tensions and avoid the possibility of the outbreak of avoidable hostilities between East and West.

Based upon reliable satellite data and other information, more than forty-five-thousand Russian ground forces are now in place close to the Latvian, Estonian, and Polish borders. These troops are supported by more than one hundred fighters and bombers, as well as extensive tank, artillery and mobile missile launch assets.

That’s the end of the statement. I’ll now take questions. Okay – over there.

Thank you, Colonel. Trevor Quinn, The London Times. Can you be more specific about why Russia would under-report the number of troops involved in these exercises?

Yes. One purpose of the reporting protocol is to limit a country’s ability to secretly amass a force sufficient to launch an invasion under the guise of conducting military exercises. Violating this protocol was part of the playbook the Russians followed prior to their invasions of Crimea and Ukraine. Okay, over there.

Judy Eifel, NPR. Colonel, is there a real concern that Russia is planning another invasion? Are tensions really that high?

Not yet. Keeping it that way is another reason for the protocol. Throughout history, aggressors have regularly assigned blamed the nations they’ve attacked, claiming severe provocation, or that the other side in fact attacked first. The list is endless: Hitler’s invasion of Poland, the non-existent Gulf of Tonkin incident the United States cited as the justification for the retaliation that launched the Viet Nam war, Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, and so on.

The Colonel pointed at another journalist.

Ralph Menning, Die Zeit. If not as a prelude to an invasion, Colonel, why would Russia under-report its troops?

Good question. We believe that Russia’s motivation in this case is internal. Its economy is suffering badly under western economic sanctions imposed in response to Russia’s previous aggressions. The Russian president has a long history of saber-rattling to increase his popularity, and he’s been quite successful in achieving that result. Also, he’s making it clear both at home and abroad that he’s forced Belarus to knuckle under again. A year ago, the Belarus president was publicly signaling he might back out of the close alliance that has existed for decades between his country and Russia. The current exercise sends a clear signal to the Belarus people that Russia can rapidly deploy extensive forces into Belarus any time it wants. And it demonstrates to NATO how easy it would be for Russia to send a large force into the heart of eastern Europe.

But we can’t know what Russia’s true purpose here may be, so we need to react in a way that allows us to act appropriately in the event of all contingencies. There have been too many wars launched on this continent on a pretext. We don’t want to allow another situation to get out of hand.

We sure don’t, Frank thought, closing the browser. Russia had grown increasingly restive ever since Georgia, a former Soviet Socialist Republic, announced it wanted to join NATO. Ever since, Russia had been pulling out of European arms agreements, expanding its military, and launching more and more military exercises like this NATO’s doorstep. How far was it planning on pushing things this time?

*  *  *

President Yazzi did not like the corner he was in. The opportunity was clear, but there were hazards, too. And he’d have to go back on some of his biggest campaign promises. True, the plan just presented to him was a plausible way to increase economic pressure on Russia. But would it in fact force Russia to curtail its recent aggressions?

The same concept had indeed worked thirty years before, when the United States brought the Soviet Union to the brink of bankruptcy by raising the cost of the arms race year after year. Eventually, the Kremilin was forced to capitulate. Not long after, its economic fortunes plummeted as the Soviet Union dissolved, robbing it of the ability to milk the eastern European and Asian countries it had dominated for so long. With its economy in tatters, it had little choice but do everything it could to de-escalate tensions with the United States, even allowing the west to assist in the destruction of many of its nuclear weapons.

But then the compliant and often inebriated Boris Yeltsin turned over the reins of power to Vladimir Putin, a former KGB agent who bitterly resented Russia’s loss of super power status. When the skyrocketing price of oil refilled Russia’s coffers, he set out to rebuild Russia’s military might and reassert it’s influence abroad. It was still no match for the West – Russia’s gross domestic product was still only about eight percent that of the United States. In fact, Russia’s economy ranked behind Italy, South Korea, and even Canada, a country with only a quarter as many citizens as Russia.

But unlike Canada, the Kremlin had no compunction about using its new riches to buy guns instead of roses. And it still had thousands of nuclear weapons.

This time around, the United States would have to try a different strategy to bring Russia to the table. Sanctions had stung, but unless the price of oil fell further and stayed there, Russia would stay a pain in America’s butt..

Yazzi frowned at the waiting faces around the table. His Chief of Staff had invited the Secretary of the Interior and the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency to join today’s meeting of the National Security Council, and all of them were all looking at him, waiting for his decision. Well, they could wait a little longer.

“Hugh,” he said, looking at the Secretary of State. “How much can we count on the Saudis? They’ll take a big financial hit. Are you sure they’ll hang in there for as long as this may take?”

“They’re in, Mr. President. They’re furious that Russia never pulled out of Syria after the last ISIS territory was recovered. And even more concerned that Russia is still collaborating with Iran. The Saudis are more determined than ever to be recognized as the dominant power in the Middle East. Plus, this will give the new Saudi king another chance to show everybody who’s boss.”

“Did you get down to specifics?” Yazzi asked. Hugh Calhoun had not been his first choice for Secretary of State, or even his fourth. He would have preferred a professional instead of a politician to fill such an important post. “If we go forward with this, everyone’s going to have to be in for the duration.”

“Their ambassador has assured us the Saudis are willing to help hold the price of oil below $35 a barrel for as long as it takes to bring the Russians to the table.”

“And how long will that be – on the outside?” Yazzi asked.

“Well, the Russian president’s back is already pretty much against the wall,” Calhoun said. “The price of oil hasn’t risen above forty-five dollars a barrel in twenty-one months, and natural gas is at historical lows already. And the amount of alternative energy coming on line is finally having a significant effect, too. Even if nothing else changed, we calculate that alternatives will push prices down about a dollar a barrel a year. And that rate should increase.”

“That’s not what I asked,” Yazzi said. “We won’t be able to hold the price below $35 a barrel if U.S. oil companies don’t play ball. They’ll need to sell some oil at a loss to maintain current levels of production, and if they do that, the price will firm up again. Unlocking continental shelf and public lands that have been off-limits up till now will buy their coöperation for a while, but not forever.” And environmentalists that helped elect me will be calling for my head, too, Yazzi thought. “I need a clear answer on how long Russia can hold out.”

“Well, recent anti-government demonstrations in major Russian cities are larger than we’ve seen in years. Poking a thumb in our eye with the military activities in Belarus won’t help raise the Russian president’s popularity much unless he actually crosses a border into Poland or one of the Baltic countries. .And he’s not that stupid.”

Yazzi waited.

“Okay,” the Secretary said. “Not more than nine months.”

“Good,” Yazzi said. “Who else can we count on?”

“Canada and the Emirates have also committed. After that, there aren’t any big producers we could expect to help. China uses all the oil it produces, and more. Venezuela, of course, would side with Russia even if they could afford to see prices go down, which they can’t. It’s not worth even contacting Iran, and Iraq said no.”

“How about domestically?” Yazzi asked, turning to the Secretary of Energy.

“Four out of five of the companies with the biggest exploration and drilling budgets are in. If you take executive action to open most public land in the US and off shore, they’ll hold their production levels down for a reasonable amount of time.”

“Didn’t you hear what Hugh just said? We need a firm commitment from them for at least nine months.”

“Yes, Mr. President. I’ll get back to them, and then to you.”

*  *  *

Author’s Notes for This Week

So now I have most of my major cards on the table. The major action will play out on two fronts instead of one. Of course, the two will intersect in ways that will be suspenseful, surprising and exciting, provided that I do my job right. Introducing  political thread should surprise few readers, as each book today has had a political story line as well as a cybersecurity plot.

As usual, we’ve also seen another familiar character resurface, the durable Henry Dodge Yazzi. For those who have not yet devoured the entire Frank Adversego canon (do such people really exist?), Henry is the dark horse, Native American candidate who won election as President in The Lafayette Campaign, he also made a brief appearance in the set up to the dramatic finale of The Doodlebug Affair.

One result of introducing the particular international/political theme found in this week’s chapter will be the need to provide the facts necessary to make the Cold War, the fall of the Soviet Union, and the revival of Russian ambitions in the post-Yeltsin world real to all readers, most of whom were born after the majority of these events occurred.

As a general matter, a fiction writer should avoid including more details on a topic than are actually necessary to allow the plot line to progress. There are exceptions, however, such as historical fiction, where the details are a large part of the genre’s appeal to the reader, and techno-thrillers, where a sufficient amount of detail is needed to satisfy readers who love the techno part (and while not aggravating those that are only in it for the thriller ride).

Next week: We’ll get deeper into the evolving US plan to tighten the screws on Russia. And Frank will lose another round to Fang.

Continue to Chapter 9 here